Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7dce…4682 other 389 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$587 (-3%) realized −$482 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate46%164W / 195L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$740now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$30
14 days+$1
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$275
tech 26% +$382
world 20% −$380
politics 13% −$626
finance 6% −$254
crypto 2% −$31
economics 2% +$8
culture 1% −$66
sports 1% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +34.2% +21.5% 67% 56% +16.1%
≤30d 45 -4.4% -13.5% 56% 40% -7.9%
≤90d 205 -22.0% -29.4% 40% 30% -12.6%
all 359 -20.2% -27.8% 46% 30% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 30% -12.9%
10% -34.7% 23% -21.3%
15% -41.0% 17% -28.9%
20% -46.8% 10% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$22 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$740
Realized−$482
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses164 / 195
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions30
Markets (closed)359 / 389
History coverage145d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $198 $167 −$31 (-16%)
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $163 $135 −$28 (-17%)
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? Yes 37¢ 46¢ $108 $133 +$25 (+23%)
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 23¢ 36¢ $75 $120 +$45 (+60%)
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 21¢ 42¢ $32 $62 +$30 (+94%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 82.5% and 85%? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+33%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 56¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-34%)
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 15¢ 8¢ $13 $8 −$6 (-43%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-48%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-57%)
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $15 $5 −$9 (-64%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+87%)
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-75%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-55%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-66%)
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $37 $2 −$36 (-96%)
Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+65%)
Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-93%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-85%)
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $12 $1 −$12 (-94%)
Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $8 +$22 +266%
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +41%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 13 $26 +$1 +3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 13 $7 +$3 +38%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +49%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $12 −$1 -9%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $24 +$6 +27%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 in June? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $39 −$1 -4%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $6 +$6 +98%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Jun 08 $15 −$3 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $24 +$8 +35%
Kurds declare independence from Iran? Jun 08 $21 −$18 -84%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 06 $68 −$4 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $14 −$6 -44%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $420 in June? Jun 01 $35 +$12 +34%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $129 −$52 -41%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $19 +$9 +47%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C May 29 $67 $0 -0%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $15 −$8 -53%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 28 $26 +$15 +58%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $9 −$9 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 27 $33 +$3 +9%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 26 $606 +$34 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $16 +$2 +15%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 26 $85 +$49 +58%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $11 +$6 +54%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $15 +$8 +54%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $75 −$56 -74%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $64 +$14 +21%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? May 22 $8 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? May 22 $87 +$8 +9%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco May 22 $43 +$2 +6%
Will NVIDIA say "Self-Driving" during their next earnings call? May 20 $47 +$17 +36%
Will NVIDIA say "Token" 20+ times during their next earnings call? May 20 $20 −$16 -76%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? May 20 $24 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $72 −$9 -13%
Will NVIDIA say "GPU In Space" or "GPUs in Space" during their next ea May 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $85 +$16 +19%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 in May? May 17 $14 −$3 -19%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 17 $16 −$2 -11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 17 $7 −$1 -11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $21 −$10 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 18¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $11 6h
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 7h
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 7h
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $2 10h
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $7 10h
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? SELL Yes 47¢ $29 29h
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 2d
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Contro BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 3d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $4 4d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $11 4d
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $12 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 38¢ $9 4d
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $37 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 41¢ $11 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 58¢ $30 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 26¢ $7 5d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 67¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 44¢ $24 5d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( BUY Yes 28¢ $2 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 43¢ $12 5d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $34 5d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $739.63 · official $739.64 (match) · 2269 history records