Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:52:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7dd1…f90d other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$14
politics 28% −$9
sports 11% +$12
crypto 6% −$2
tech 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 116 -1.2% -10.6% 7% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×10.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage134d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $193 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $368 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $382 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $165 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $757 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $174 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $328 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 10 $214 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 07 $181 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $375 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $210 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $414 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $219 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $177 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $435 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $208 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $209 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $157 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $364 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $588 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $222 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $193 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $154 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $167 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 20 $327 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $182 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $382 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $187 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 14h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 3d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 9d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 9d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 10d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $27 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $27 15d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 16d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 17d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 18d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 18d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $164 30d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $164 30d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 31d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 32d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $165 33d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $165 33d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $216 34d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $216 35d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $157 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.94 · official $80.94 (match) · 395 history records