Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7dd7…19bf politics 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34 (-3%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$19
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$3
crypto 10% −$6
weather 7% −$22
sports 4% $0
world 3% −$4
other 3% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 11 -61.2% -64.9% 27% 27% -34.3%
all 35 -20.3% -27.9% 26% 11% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 11% -12.5%
10% -34.8% 11% -20.9%
15% -41.1% 3% -28.5%
20% -46.8% 3% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage526d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? No 63¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 48¢ 46¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 14? May 15 $18 +$6 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 15 $22 +$15 +68%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 6? May 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3? May 06 $18 +$5 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on May 1? May 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 05 $191 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $187 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $195 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $193 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? Oct 07 $16 −$1 -8%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 07 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 07 $29 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Oct 05 $20 −$3 -16%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Oct 02 $1 $0 -8%
Will Solana dip to $190 in September? Sep 28 $14 +$4 +29%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports Sep 25 $10 $0 -2%
Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? Sep 21 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 15 $7 $0 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 06 $22 $0 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 05 $17 −$1 -5%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in his first 100 days? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Mar 26 $10 $0 -2%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 23 $7 $0 -6%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Mar 20 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday? Jan 09 $17 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 63¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 14? BUY No 75¢ $18 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? BUY No 58¢ $22 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3? BUY Up 77¢ $18 47d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on May 1? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 50d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 166d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $191 166d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $186 166d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 166d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $195 166d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $195 166d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $193 166d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $193 166d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 255d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 255d
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? SELL No 31¢ $9 255d
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? BUY No 33¢ $9 255d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 35¢ $28 255d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 36¢ $29 255d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? SELL No 56¢ $5 257d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? SELL No 43¢ $17 257d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? BUY No 51¢ $20 257d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.89 · official $38.89 (match) · 75 history records