Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7D 0x7ddb…b423 sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,917 (-8%) realized −$1,917 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$743per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,398
7 days+$1,398
14 days+$1,398
30 days+$1,398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$7,165
sports 44% +$5,640
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +28.3% +16.1% 67% 67% +73.6%
≤30d 3 +28.3% +16.1% 67% 67% +73.6%
≤90d 18 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 50% -6.9%
all 32 -13.0% -21.3% 44% 44% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 44% -15.3%
10% -28.8% 44% -23.4%
15% -35.7% 44% -30.8%
20% -42.0% 41% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,174) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$783 vs −$693 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$1,000
Realized−$1,917
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage138d
Avg bet$743
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $526 +$478 +91%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $994 +$926 +93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $823 −$810 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $488 +$339 +70%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw? May 15 $581 −$570 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 15 $563 +$504 +90%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) May 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,683 −$1,660 -99%
Will FC Alverca vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw? May 10 $1,174 +$532 +45%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,653 −$1,636 -99%
Will AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice end in a draw? May 10 $551 −$543 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,941 +$1,434 +74%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $418 −$412 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 10 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Charlotte FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw? May 10 $1,276 +$1,086 +85%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $920 +$476 +52%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $496 +$433 +87%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $2,117 −$2,117 -100%
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5 Feb 24 $1,476 +$1,795 +122%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $1,179 −$1,179 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $780 −$780 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $996 +$2,439 +245%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $300 −$300 -100%
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $300 −$299 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 07 $754 −$754 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $298 +$458 +153%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $40 +$37 +92%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $22 +$18 +85%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $60 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $25 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $13 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $53 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $37 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $15 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $322 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $994 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $6 35h
Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $823 33d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 59¢ $7 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 59¢ $125 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 59¢ $6 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 59¢ $44 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 59¢ $41 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 59¢ $37 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 59¢ $37 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 59¢ $5 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 59¢ $136 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 59¢ $50 34d
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $171 34d
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $206 34d
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 34d
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) BUY Cavaliers 52¢ $563 36d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Timberwolves 57¢ $21 37d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Timberwolves 57¢ $2 37d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 54¢ $1,683 39d
Will FC Alverca vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,706 39d
Will FC Alverca vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $76 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $999.99 · official $999.99 (match) · 128 history records