Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7D 0x7dde…c7bf other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$23 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +26.6% +14.5% 67% 67% +16.0%
≤30d 3 +26.6% +14.5% 67% 67% +16.0%
≤90d 3 +26.6% +14.5% 67% 67% +16.0%
all 3 +26.6% +14.5% 67% 67% +16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.5% 67% +16.0%
10% +3.6% 67% +4.9%
15% -6.4% 67% -5.2%
20% -15.6% 67% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $99 $106 +$7 (+7%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 57¢ 44¢ $101 $77 −$24 (-24%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 38¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $92 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.41 · official $189.58 (match) · 9 history records