Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7D 0x7dde…30b1 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$250 (+6%) realized +$345 · open −$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate64%29W / 16L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$78
sports 33% +$20
crypto 20% +$181
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 76% 29% -9.0%
≤30d 18 +7.9% -2.4% 78% 33% -8.9%
≤90d 45 +18.4% +7.1% 64% 47% -2.9%
all 45 +18.4% +7.1% 64% 47% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 47% -2.9%
10% -3.1% 40% -12.2%
15% -12.5% 40% -20.6%
20% -21.1% 33% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$21 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized+$345
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses29 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)45 / 52
History coverage41d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? No 91¢ 100¢ $109 $120 +$11 (+10%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 87¢ 86¢ $104 $103 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? No 90¢ 40¢ $188 $85 −$103 (-55%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? No 100¢ 99¢ $60 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 85¢ 82¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $201 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $56 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $40 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $59 +$1 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $20 +$4 +18%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $56 $0 +1%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $19 +$2 +12%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $799 +$1 +0%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 17 $7 −$3 -44%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $13 +$15 +114%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $11 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $609 +$24 +4%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $61 +$7 +11%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $176 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +116%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 08 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 08 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 08 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 08 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 08 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 08 $26 +$87 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 07 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 07 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 07 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 07 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 07 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 07 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 07 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 07 $17 +$32 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 07 $16 +$23 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 07 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 07 $58 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 07 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 07 $52 +$83 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 07 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $58 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $58 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $58 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $58 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $58 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $58 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $58 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $58 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $58 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $58 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $58 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $58 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 95¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL No 94¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $540.84 · official $538.76 (match) · 208 history records