Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:32:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7de0…72c5 crypto 375 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$4,638 (+4%) realized −$19,926 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate38%305W / 506L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day531.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4,403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22,548
7 days−$19,926
14 days−$19,926
30 days−$19,926
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$901
other 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-57.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 811 -52.5% -57.1% 38% 10% -22.6%
≤30d 811 -52.5% -57.1% 38% 10% -22.6%
≤90d 811 -52.5% -57.1% 38% 10% -22.6%
all 811 -52.5% -57.1% 38% 10% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover531.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.1% 10% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -61.2% 6% -30.1%
15% -64.9% 4% -36.8%
20% -68.4% 3% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$57 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$4,403
Realized−$19,926
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses305 / 506
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)811 / 375
History coverage6d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day531.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 811 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $2,301 $2,420 +$120 (+5%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Up 64¢ 100¢ $896 $1,407 +$512 (+57%)
Solana Up or Down on June 15? Up 72¢ 96¢ $149 $199 +$49 (+33%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Up 76¢ 48¢ $312 $196 −$116 (-37%)
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 90¢ 100¢ $72 $80 +$8 (+11%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5PM ET Down 63¢ 100¢ $41 $65 +$24 (+59%)
Solana Up or Down on June 15? Down 6¢ 4¢ $30 $18 −$13 (-42%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Down 71¢ 52¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-26%)
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 6AM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 62¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+61%)
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 11AM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 47¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+113%)
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 12PM ET Down 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 8PM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 61¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+64%)
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1AM ET Down 49¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+104%)
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 12AM ET Up 37¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+170%)
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 7PM ET Down 79¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5AM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$24 +59%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 6AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 11AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +113%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 12PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 8PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +104%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 12AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +170%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 7PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +26%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +117%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 8PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $44 −$49 -112%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 12AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 9PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 4AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 2AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $65 −$65 -99%
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 9PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 3PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $169 −$169 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $326 −$326 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 4PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 9PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $7 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $13 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $103 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $13 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $87 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $55 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 27m
Solana Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 5¢ $2 29m
Solana Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 5¢ $10 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $34 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $33 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $3 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $149 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $5 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $8 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $7 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,402.66 · official $4,390.93 (match) · 3500 history records