trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +18.6% | +7.3% | 100% | 100% | +7.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +2.6% | -7.2% | 40% | 40% | -4.0% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 50% | 40% | -6.7% |
| all | 13 | +6.7% | -3.5% | 62% | 46% | -3.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.5% | 46% | -3.9% |
| 10% | -12.7% | 23% | -13.1% |
| 15% | -21.1% | 15% | -21.5% |
| 20% | -28.9% | 8% | -29.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 59¢ | 68¢ | $282 | $325 | +$43 (+15%) |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | Yes | 32¢ | 38¢ | $202 | $242 | +$39 (+20%) |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $92 | $91 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $58 | $62 | +$5 (+8%) |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 41¢ | 55¢ | $41 | $55 | +$14 (+34%) |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%? | Yes | 8¢ | 18¢ | $11 | $23 | +$13 (+121%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili | Jun 22 | $454 | +$85 | +19% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 03 | $448 | −$9 | -2% |
| Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 | May 27 | $55 | −$3 | -5% |
| Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid | May 26 | $100 | −$24 | -24% |
| Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? | May 24 | $80 | +$20 | +26% |
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | May 21 | $190 | −$111 | -58% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Apr 16 | $268 | +$15 | +6% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 16 | $100 | −$5 | -5% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Apr 16 | $61 | +$33 | +54% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Apr 02 | $304 | +$64 | +21% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 22 | $50 | +$10 | +20% |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Feb 18 | $224 | +$81 | +36% |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | Feb 10 | $206 | $0 | +0% |