Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7de0…6b2b politics 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$524 (+13%) realized +$411 · open +$113
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$797now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$85
14 days+$85
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% +$120
world 13% +$64
other 6% +$81
sports 2% −$5
economics 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +18.6% +7.3% 100% 100% +7.3%
≤30d 5 +2.6% -7.2% 40% 40% -4.0%
≤90d 10 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 40% -6.7%
all 13 +6.7% -3.5% 62% 46% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 46% -3.9%
10% -12.7% 23% -13.1%
15% -21.1% 15% -21.5%
20% -28.9% 8% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$30 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$797
Realized+$411
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)13 / 19
History coverage133d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili Jun 22 $454 +$85 +19%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $448 −$9 -2%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 May 27 $55 −$3 -5%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 26 $100 −$24 -24%
Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 24 $80 +$20 +26%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $190 −$111 -58%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $268 +$15 +6%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $100 −$5 -5%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 16 $61 +$33 +54%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $304 +$64 +21%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 22 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 18 $224 +$81 +36%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $206 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili SELL No 80¢ $539 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 56¢ $212 19h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 56¢ $0 21h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY No 66¢ $307 21h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 56¢ $483 21h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY No 66¢ $47 21h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY No 66¢ $100 21h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the SELL Yes 68¢ $146 21h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY Yes 31¢ $105 2d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY Yes 35¢ $4 5d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY Yes 35¢ $2 5d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY Yes $7 6d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY Yes 36¢ $48 6d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY Yes 33¢ $2 7d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY Yes 32¢ $4 7d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY Yes 31¢ $18 7d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 45¢ $41 11d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY Yes 30¢ $3 11d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY Yes 29¢ $3 11d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili BUY Yes 28¢ $18 11d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 44¢ $60 11d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 41¢ $4 19d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 41¢ $7 19d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 41¢ $12 19d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the SELL Yes 60¢ $28 19d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 40¢ $109 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $797.48 · official $797.48 (match) · 83 history records