Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

7D 0x7de2…c95b other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$25 (+6%) realized +$17 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$43per market

Trades / day2.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit11%portable

Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-10.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-1.4%	-10.8%	67%	67%	-45.2%
≤30d	6	-1.4%	-10.8%	67%	67%	-45.2%
≤90d	6	-1.4%	-10.8%	67%	67%	-45.2%
all	6	-1.4%	-10.8%	67%	67%	-45.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.8%	67%	-45.2%
10%	-19.3%	50%	-50.5%
15%	-27.1%	17%	-55.3%
20%	-34.3%	0%	-59.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -40% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$78 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.23 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$83

Realized+$17

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)6 / 9

History coverage6d

Avg bet$43

Trades / day2.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$50	$57	+$7 (+15%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	58¢	$20	$21	+$1 (+3%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Yes	30¢	30¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$149	−$142	-95%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$47	−$15	-31%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$21	+$4	+18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$21	+$7	+32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$21	+$8	+38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$52	+$18	+34%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	64¢	$34	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	13¢	$32	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$94	5h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$21	12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$21	22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$21	22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$71	22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$21	25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$21	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$52	25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$47	6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$53	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.74 · official $82.74 (match) · 22 history records