Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7D 0x7de2…cd3f crypto 617 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (168 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$6,849 (+12%) realized +$6,871 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%286W / 385L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day167.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,865
sports 3% −$162
other 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (168 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -82.8% -84.4% 6% 6% -83.5%
≤30d 671 -16.3% -24.2% 43% 41% -18.5%
≤90d 671 -16.3% -24.2% 43% 41% -18.5%
all 671 -16.3% -24.2% 43% 41% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover167.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 41% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 35% -26.3%
15% -38.1% 27% -33.4%
20% -44.2% 18% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$48 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$423
Realized+$6,871
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses286 / 385
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions18
Markets (closed)671 / 617
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$90
Trades / day167.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 671 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 55¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 9¢ 8¢ $49 $46 −$3 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 46¢ 46¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 56¢ 56¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Galions 54¢ 54¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Galions 41¢ 42¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Galions 41¢ 40¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 33¢ 34¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Galions 43¢ 40¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Galions 33¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Saigon Warriors 11¢ 1¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-91%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Saigon Warriors 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 235 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $2 2m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 3m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $2 6m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 8m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $2 12m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $2 14m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $2 14m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 14m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 15m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $2 17m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 17m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $2 20m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $2 23m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 23m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 23m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $2 24m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 26m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $422.75 · official $422.75 (match) · 3500 history records