Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:31:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7de3…e60e other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$53 (-19%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$46
sports 16% +$12
world 6% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -38.3% -44.2% 22% 22% -25.7%
≤30d 23 -38.3% -44.2% 22% 22% -25.7%
≤90d 23 -38.3% -44.2% 22% 22% -25.7%
all 23 -38.3% -44.2% 22% 22% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.2% 22% -25.7%
10% -49.5% 22% -32.8%
15% -54.4% 22% -39.3%
20% -58.9% 17% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$8 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage5d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$11 +42%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$10 -48%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -20%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -37%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$15 +76%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $36 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 25h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 26h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $10 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 33h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $25 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records