Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7de3…93a8 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$29 (+8%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$15
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$31
sports 38% −$14
world 8% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.6% -14.6% 55% 55% -15.8%
≤30d 13 +2.7% -7.1% 62% 62% -1.5%
≤90d 13 +2.7% -7.1% 62% 62% -1.5%
all 13 +2.7% -7.1% 62% 62% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 62% -1.5%
10% -16.0% 62% -10.9%
15% -24.1% 62% -19.5%
20% -31.6% 38% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage11d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 75¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 +$20 +67%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $27 +$10 +38%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $15 +$18 +124%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $18 +$12 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$6 +44%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $47 −$46 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 +$28 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 +$14 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $30 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 21h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $13 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $4 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $11 34h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $15 34h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $3 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $15 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $15 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $47 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $49 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $35 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.34 · official $59.35 (match) · 26 history records