Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:41:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7de7…6a29
other · 43 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$32 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 17 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$32
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 80¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? No 95¢ 93¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -113%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -31%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $2 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$2 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $8 +$4 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -90%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $21 −$21 -100%
San Marino vs. Bangladesh: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $10 +$18 +172%
San Marino vs. Bangladesh: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Thailand vs. Kuwait end in a draw? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 04 $7 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 04 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 04 $6 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 04 $6 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $6 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 04 $6 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$1 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 30% +$2
sports 28% −$27
other 25% −$6
world 15% $0
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 87¢ $0 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 4h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 88¢ $0 20h
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? SELL No 93¢ $0 23h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1 24h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $2 24h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 98¢ $0 26h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 98¢ $0 26h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 40h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 40h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 43¢ $2 43h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 53¢ $2 44h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 54¢ $2 44h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 44h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 44h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 44h
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $0 2d
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -38.0% -43.9% 24% 21% -34.4%
≤30d 41 -23.8% -31.1% 39% 29% -22.8%
≤90d 41 -23.8% -31.1% 39% 29% -22.8%
all 41 -23.8% -31.1% 39% 29% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.1% 29% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -37.7% 20% -30.2%
15% -43.7% 12% -36.9%
20% -49.2% 10% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.91 · official $18.25 (match) · 387 history records