Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:41:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7D 0x7dec…c92d crypto 266 markets active 4d ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$831 (+5%) realized +$831 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%123W / 143L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$272est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$74
14 days−$319
30 days+$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$763
crypto 20% −$158
other 2% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -17.8% -25.6% 33% 20% -15.3%
≤30d 106 -2.6% -11.8% 39% 32% -6.3%
≤90d 121 +1.4% -8.3% 40% 35% -3.3%
all 266 -3.0% -12.2% 46% 39% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 39% -6.9%
10% -20.6% 32% -15.8%
15% -28.3% 24% -24.0%
20% -35.3% 15% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$23 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$831
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses123 / 143
Est. fees paid−$272
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage124d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $160 +$5 +3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $101 −$24 -24%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $76 −$16 -21%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $76 −$4 -5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $76 −$5 -6%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $81 +$7 +8%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $86 +$43 +50%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $71 −$4 -5%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $57 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $157 +$58 +37%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $76 +$14 +19%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $121 +$7 +6%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $46 −$6 -12%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $137 +$85 +62%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $152 +$2 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $101 −$50 -50%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $102 −$5 -5%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $76 −$8 -11%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $76 −$23 -30%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $51 −$13 -26%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $76 −$8 -10%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $56 +$44 +79%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $86 −$8 -9%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $182 +$103 +57%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $86 −$7 -8%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $61 −$3 -5%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $106 +$48 +45%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $76 −$33 -44%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $152 −$33 -22%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $76 +$35 +46%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $57 +$48 +85%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $203 −$35 -17%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $66 +$27 +41%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $51 −$14 -27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $50 −$10 -21%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 05 $86 +$42 +49%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $76 +$1 +1%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 05 $101 −$10 -10%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $101 −$62 -61%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $76 −$16 -22%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $76 −$9 -11%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $71 −$31 -43%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $294 −$294 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $246 −$8 -3%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $36 +$20 +56%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $475 +$333 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $165 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $76 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 51¢ $77 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $84 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 45¢ $60 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $101 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $72 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 51¢ $71 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 59¢ $88 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 53¢ $76 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 50¢ $76 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $76 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 53¢ $81 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 75¢ $129 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $86 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 48¢ $67 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $71 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 44¢ $47 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $56 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 86¢ $214 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 16¢ $5 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 16¢ $5 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $157 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 67¢ $90 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 55¢ $76 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 42¢ $51 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $128 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $121 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 634 history records