Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:15:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7df4…a771
crypto · 267 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses161 / 104
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)265 / 267
History coverage42d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 265 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$10
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) KT Rolster 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Thunder 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 5? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$15
sports 1% −$4
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $0 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -19.3% -27.0% 54% 40% -26.0%
≤30d 236 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 44% -15.2%
≤90d 265 -6.8% -15.7% 61% 44% -15.3%
all 265 -6.8% -15.7% 61% 44% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 44% -15.3%
10% -23.7% 25% -23.4%
15% -31.1% 10% -30.8%
20% -37.9% 4% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.84 · official $1.84 (match) · 620 history records