Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:41:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7df4…153c sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,912 (-44%) realized −$8,952 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%15W / 35L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$377per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$485
14 days−$485
30 days−$9,412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$10,220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-50.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -28.5% -35.3% 50% 50% -70.3%
≤30d 36 -58.5% -62.5% 25% 25% -78.0%
≤90d 50 -45.7% -50.8% 30% 28% -64.9%
all 50 -45.7% -50.8% 30% 28% -64.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.8% 28% -64.9%
10% -55.5% 24% -68.2%
15% -59.8% 22% -71.3%
20% -63.8% 20% -74.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$519) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -46% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$367 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1,159
Realized−$8,952
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses15 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions4
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage32d
Avg bet$377
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Virtus.pro 54¢ 57¢ $500 $530 +$30 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Walczaki 60¢ 70¢ $221 $260 +$39 (+18%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 42¢ 42¢ $187 $189 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group A Isurus 62¢ 62¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage QoR 74¢ 74¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li Jun 24 $63 +$37 +59%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro Jun 21 $276 −$272 -98%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $274 −$273 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $24 +$14 +57%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $88 +$12 +13%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $777 −$768 -99%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag May 29 $739 −$724 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $179 −$175 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,529 −$1,279 -84%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $225 +$289 +128%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 3 Winner May 29 $206 −$201 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $1,277 −$366 -29%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 29 $75 −$75 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $1,083 −$601 -56%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 29 $83 −$81 -98%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 1 Winner May 29 $441 −$431 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $905 +$244 +27%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $198 −$194 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 27 $88 +$127 +146%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 27 $187 −$92 -49%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner May 27 $14 +$7 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $108 +$110 +101%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $178 −$175 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $585 +$79 +14%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $217 −$214 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne May 26 $1,614 −$1,601 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $69 −$69 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 26 $197 −$194 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 26 $740 −$289 -39%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 26 $546 −$535 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $1,145 −$1,127 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $84 −$84 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winne May 25 $509 −$505 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $575 −$516 -90%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 24 $175 −$173 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 24 $98 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner May 24 $893 +$672 +75%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner May 24 $588 −$428 -73%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $715 −$707 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner May 23 $96 −$96 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 23 $231 +$118 +51%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 23 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 23 $381 +$560 +147%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 23 $187 +$307 +165%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 23 $9 +$16 +184%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $568 −$568 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr BUY Walczaki 60¢ $224 50m
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Isurus 62¢ $47 1h
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Isurus 62¢ $47 1h
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY QoR 74¢ $89 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 42¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 42¢ $184 3h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li SELL MIBR Academy 100¢ $100 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 54¢ $354 14h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY MIBR Academy 62¢ $63 17h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 55¢ $148 17h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 48¢ $276 2d
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY QoR 80¢ $54 5d
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY QoR 80¢ $40 5d
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY QoR 80¢ $4 5d
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY QoR 80¢ $36 5d
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY QoR 80¢ $37 5d
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY QoR 79¢ $103 5d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 57¢ $3 5d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $37 6d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $100 6d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 88¢ $88 7d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $24 7d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 28¢ $278 25d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 28¢ $22 25d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 28¢ $1 25d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 28¢ $2 25d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 28¢ $4 25d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 28¢ $2 25d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 28¢ $60 25d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 28¢ $245 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,158.71 · official $1,164.24 (match) · 301 history records