Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7df7…3149 crypto 1698 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$429 (-5%) realized −$429 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate64%1026W / 582L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day55.7pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$107
14 days+$97
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$30
other 6% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 543 +4.2% -5.7% 78% 76% -5.8%
≤30d 1316 -0.8% -10.2% 69% 67% -10.1%
≤90d 1608 -2.1% -11.4% 64% 63% -11.1%
all 1608 -2.1% -11.4% 64% 63% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 63% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 46% -19.6%
15% -27.6% 31% -27.4%
20% -34.7% 24% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$429
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1026 / 582
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1608 / 1698
History coverage35d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day55.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1608 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 41m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 41m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.00 (match) · 2956 history records