Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7D 0x7df7…40a1 other 58 markets active 3d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$17 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate90%28W / 3L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$25
14 days+$22
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$5
politics 36% +$10
economics 11% −$8
world 2% +$1
crypto 2% −$3
tech 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +10.1% -0.4% 100% 40% -2.6%
≤30d 31 +1.7% -8.0% 90% 32% -6.7%
≤90d 31 +1.7% -8.0% 90% 32% -6.7%
all 31 +1.7% -8.0% 90% 32% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 32% -6.7%
10% -16.8% 6% -15.6%
15% -24.8% 3% -23.8%
20% -32.2% 0% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses28 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)31 / 58
History coverage20d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting? No 98¢ 95¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 90¢ 76¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+61%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? No 90¢ 95¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Evo Morales leaves Bolivia by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the June meeting? No 94¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? Yes 99¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the July meeting? No 98¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting? Yes 95¢ 91¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 81¢ 77¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 87¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? Yes 92¢ 85¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 90¢ 76¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second rou Jun 25 $57 +$1 +2%
Will voter turnout be 64%+ in the second round of the 2026 Colombian p Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 25 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $22 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $74 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +3%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $38 +$7 +18%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 $0 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +17%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 20 $10 −$1 -14%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$2 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 19 $10 $0 +5%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $74 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $12 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second rou BUY Yes 99¢ $7 5d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 83¢ $13 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $12 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 7d
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 50¢ $9 7d
Nothing Ever Happens: June SELL Nothing 95¢ $11 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $7 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $10 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 88¢ $15 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $12 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 7d
No one announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 96¢ $11 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $8 8d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interes BUY No 98¢ $50 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 25¢ $10 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 8d
Will voter turnout be 64%+ in the second round of the 2026 Colombian p BUY No 94¢ $20 8d
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? BUY No 90¢ $10 10d
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.65 · official $307.65 (match) · 102 history records