Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:40:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7df8…d377 other 17 markets active 15h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3 (-17%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$2
sports 6% $0
crypto 6% −$1
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -24.7% -31.9% 50% 50% -31.5%
≤30d 10 -24.7% -31.9% 50% 50% -31.5%
≤90d 10 -24.7% -31.9% 50% 50% -31.5%
all 10 -24.7% -31.9% 50% 50% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 50% -31.5%
10% -38.4% 40% -38.1%
15% -44.4% 40% -44.1%
20% -49.8% 10% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)10 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.01 · official $7.01 (match) · 22 history records