Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:34:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7D 0x7df9…3a84 sports 1281 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$258 (+0%) realized +$249 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate92%1166W / 105L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$64
14 days+$169
30 days+$471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$325
other 10% +$187
culture 3% +$139
world 3% +$20
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 +3.8% -6.1% 98% 2% -8.4%
≤30d 233 +5.0% -5.0% 91% 7% -6.6%
≤90d 893 +2.4% -7.4% 91% 6% -8.2%
all 1271 +1.1% -8.5% 92% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 5% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 4% -17.3%
15% -25.2% 3% -25.3%
20% -32.6% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$25 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$471
Realized+$249
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1166 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1271 / 1281
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? No 95¢ 100¢ $177 $186 +$9 (+5%)
Can Uzun: 4+ goals + assists No 53¢ 75¢ $53 $75 +$22 (+42%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? No 82¢ 89¢ $57 $62 +$5 (+8%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $44 $40 −$4 (-9%)
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 95¢ 97¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Gavi Paez: 4+ goals + assists No 92¢ 78¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-15%)
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will Panama be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 97¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Yes 25¢ 4¢ $25 $4 −$21 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chemsdine Talbi: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $27 +$2 +8%
Azzedine Ounahi: 3+ goals + assists Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $17 +$1 +8%
Brahim Díaz: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $15 +$1 +9%
Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals + assists Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Gessime Yassine: 3+ goals + assists Jun 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Gessime Yassine: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $13 +$1 +4%
Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $12 +$1 +8%
César Huerta: 3+ goals + assists Jun 19 $24 +$2 +8%
César Huerta: 4+ goals + assists Jun 19 $16 +$2 +10%
Alexis Vega: 4+ goals + assists Jun 19 $11 +$1 +6%
Armando González: 3+ goals + assists Jun 19 $31 +$3 +8%
Son Heungmin: 4+ goals + assists Jun 19 $19 +$1 +5%
Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $17 +$1 +8%
Michel Aebischer: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $55 +$1 +1%
Cédric Itten: 3+ goals + assists Jun 18 $15 +$1 +8%
Cédric Itten: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $23 +$2 +8%
Noah Okafor: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $12 +$1 +9%
Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $17 +$2 +10%
Silvan Widmer: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $55 +$1 +1%
Remo Freuler: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $55 +$1 +1%
Fabian Rieder: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $55 +$1 +1%
Edin Džeko: 3+ goals + assists Jun 18 $12 +$1 +8%
Edin Džeko: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $16 +$1 +6%
Ermedin Demirović: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $55 +$1 +1%
Zeki Amdouni: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $17 +$1 +8%
Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Christian Fassnacht: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $24 +$2 +6%
Haris Tabaković: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $12 +$1 +8%
Oston Urunov: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Abbosbek Fayzullayev: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Eldor Shomurodov: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Ismael Díaz: 3+ goals + assists Jun 18 $38 +$2 +6%
Ismael Díaz: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Prince Adu Kwabena: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $27 +$1 +5%
José Fajardo: 3+ goals + assists Jun 18 $20 +$2 +8%
José Fajardo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Jordan Ayew: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $48 +$2 +5%
Michael Amir Murillo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $29 $0 +1%
Cecilio Waterman: 3+ goals + assists Jun 18 $25 +$2 +8%
Cecilio Waterman: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Carlos Harvey: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $29 $0 +1%
Augustine Boakye: 4+ shots on target Jun 18 $29 $0 +1%
Tomás Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists Jun 18 $25 +$2 +6%
Abdul Fatawu Issahaku: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $11 $0 +3%
Ernest Nuamah: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $29 $0 +1%
Tomás Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Mateo Kovačić: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $33 +$1 +2%
Marc Guéhi: 4+ goals + assists Jun 18 $38 +$1 +2%
Luka Vušković: 2+ assists Jun 18 $25 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Azzedine Ounahi: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Can Uzun: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 53¢ $53 14h
Gavi Paez: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 92¢ $28 14h
Fabian Rieder: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $55 29h
Remo Freuler: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $55 29h
Silvan Widmer: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $55 29h
Michel Aebischer: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $55 30h
Ermedin Demirović: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $6 30h
Ermedin Demirović: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $50 30h
Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $10 30h
Eldor Shomurodov: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $35 46h
Oston Urunov: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $35 46h
Abbosbek Fayzullayev: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $35 46h
Christian Fassnacht: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 94¢ $24 47h
Augustine Boakye: 4+ shots on target BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Michael Amir Murillo: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Ernest Nuamah: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Carlos Harvey: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Luka Modrić: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $35 2d
Son Heungmin: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 95¢ $19 2d
Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $35 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? SELL No 99¢ $13 2d
John Stones: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 81¢ $10 2d
Noah Okafor: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 92¢ $12 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Chemsdine Talbi: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 92¢ $27 2d
Gessime Yassine: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 92¢ $17 2d
Cédric Itten: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 92¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $470.60 · official $470.60 (match) · 3500 history records