Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7dfc…f54e crypto 145 markets active 47d ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (661 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$180,397 (+192%) realized +$180,397 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%70W / 218L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$649per market
Trades / day661.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$30,282
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (661 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-49.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -95.0% -95.5% 1% 1% -99.0%
≤30d 143 -95.0% -95.5% 1% 1% -99.0%
≤90d 288 -44.0% -49.3% 24% 20% -29.6%
all 288 -44.0% -49.3% 24% 20% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover661.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.3% 20% -29.6%
10% -54.2% 17% -36.4%
15% ← realistic here -58.6% 13% -42.5%
20% -62.7% 12% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -95% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
23.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$698 vs −$321 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$180,397
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses70 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)288 / 145
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$649
Trades / day661.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 288 Trades
no open positions (185 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $1,082 −$1,082 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $1,077 −$1,077 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $242 −$242 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $262 −$262 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $3,458 −$3,458 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $978 −$978 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $368 −$368 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $1,533 −$1,533 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $1,504 −$1,504 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $762 −$762 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $164 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $2,554 −$2,554 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 29 $330 −$330 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $81 −$1,679 -2078%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $513 −$513 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $922 −$922 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $410 −$410 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $64 −$64 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records