Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7D 0x7dfd…b845 sports 620 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,403 (-1%) realized −$3,688 · open +$285
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate67%410W / 206L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$520per market
Trades / day38.2pace
Fees−$2,640est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$967now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$6,286
other 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +0.3% -9.2% 66% 64% -1.5%
≤30d 591 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 62% -11.1%
≤90d 616 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 62% -11.4%
all 616 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 62% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 62% -11.4%
10% -19.9% 49% -19.9%
15% ← realistic here -27.6% 36% -27.6%
20% -34.7% 24% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$668) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$440 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$967
Realized−$3,688
Unrealized+$285
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses410 / 206
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$2,640
Open positions4
Markets (closed)616 / 620
History coverage48d
Avg bet$520
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 616 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $333 $333 −$0 (-0%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Nigma Galaxy 34¢ 100¢ $112 $330 +$218 (+194%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playoffs 4ikibamboni 74¢ 100¢ $209 $280 +$71 (+34%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 48¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 200 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $43 +$7 +16%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $63 +$37 +60%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $108 +$224 +207%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $292 +$58 +20%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $138 +$62 +45%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Darderi vs Hanfmann Jun 23 $110 −$109 -99%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $165 +$193 +117%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $130 +$19 +14%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $150 +$109 +72%
Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs Buse Jun 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $64 −$63 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $280 −$280 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $248 +$109 +44%
Set 2 Winner: Polmans vs Dimitrov Jun 23 $57 +$18 +32%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $325 +$75 +23%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $59 −$58 -99%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $199 +$351 +177%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $118 −$118 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $184 +$15 +8%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $77 +$23 +31%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $15 +$10 +69%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $54 −$53 -99%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $261 +$39 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $239 +$51 +21%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $196 +$43 +22%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $92 −$90 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $184 +$105 +57%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $144 −$116 -80%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $198 +$22 +11%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $131 +$69 +52%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $41 −$41 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $32 −$32 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $109 −$108 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $185 −$184 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $121 −$120 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $119 −$118 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $172 +$78 +46%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $127 +$73 +57%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $64 −$63 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $256 −$255 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $199 +$151 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $196 +$98 +50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $175 +$25 +14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $91 +$59 +65%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $179 +$171 +96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $350 +$136 +39%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $159 −$159 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $80 +$35 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $169 24m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 34¢ $114 43m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $333 46m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 73¢ $37 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 75¢ $173 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $166 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 33¢ $16 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 32¢ $68 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 33¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 33¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 33¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $63 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $350 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $200 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 70¢ $8 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 68¢ $130 3h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 63¢ $25 3h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 63¢ $19 3h
Set 1 Winner: Darderi vs Hanfmann BUY Hanfmann 59¢ $60 3h
Set 1 Winner: Darderi vs Hanfmann BUY Hanfmann 63¢ $50 4h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 83¢ $292 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $43 4h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 100¢ $359 4h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 46¢ $12 6h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 46¢ $41 6h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 46¢ $12 6h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 46¢ $87 6h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 46¢ $12 6h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 46¢ $3 6h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $259 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $967.11 · official $967.11 (match) · 2051 history records