Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7dff…1f35 other 397 markets active 0h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,191 (+3%) realized +$1,424 · open +$1,844
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate39%142W / 223L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$11,816now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$252
14 days+$681
30 days+$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$2,237
other 22% −$659
culture 20% +$219
politics 9% −$125
economics 5% +$1,349
tech 5% −$93
crypto 3% +$155
sports 2% +$169
finance 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +128.4% +106.6% 67% 50% +16.7%
≤30d 35 +21.5% +9.9% 71% 37% -4.9%
≤90d 76 +14.8% +3.8% 64% 34% -4.6%
all 365 -9.8% -18.4% 39% 26% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 26% -8.0%
10% -26.2% 20% -16.8%
15% -33.4% 15% -24.9%
20% -39.9% 10% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$67 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$11,816
Realized+$1,424
Unrealized+$1,844
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses142 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions33
Markets (closed)365 / 397
History coverage208d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,854 $2,977 +$124 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 39¢ 81¢ $626 $1,290 +$664 (+106%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 65¢ 67¢ $979 $1,005 +$26 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 69¢ 88¢ $754 $962 +$209 (+28%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $541 $574 +$33 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 47¢ 92¢ $283 $555 +$272 (+96%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $495 $543 +$48 (+10%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 92¢ 99¢ $460 $495 +$35 (+8%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $479 $490 +$11 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $469 $488 +$19 (+4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 21¢ 84¢ $84 $338 +$254 (+302%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 76¢ 99¢ $228 $297 +$69 (+30%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 83¢ 94¢ $248 $282 +$34 (+14%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $225 $230 +$5 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 96¢ $96 $197 +$102 (+106%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 70¢ 60¢ $210 $182 −$28 (-14%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 63¢ 68¢ $126 $135 +$9 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 34¢ $126 $102 −$24 (-19%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 37¢ 27¢ $138 $100 −$38 (-28%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 73¢ 83¢ $73 $83 +$10 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $82 $80 −$2 (-2%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 79¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $54 $52 −$2 (-4%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $41 $40 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $186 −$4 -2%
New pandemic in 2026? Jun 14 $87 +$2 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $24 +$176 +733%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $298 +$45 +15%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $142 +$58 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $132 −$25 -19%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $61 −$27 -44%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 04 $139 +$22 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 04 $311 +$31 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $24 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $614 +$3 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $1,280 +$131 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $134 +$66 +50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $279 +$21 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $987 +$13 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $148 +$52 +35%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,484 +$116 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 29 $287 +$13 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 29 $292 +$7 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $241 −$241 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 25 $36 +$5 +14%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $130 −$128 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -96%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 24 $344 +$6 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $178 +$22 +12%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $18 +$8 +44%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $16 +$21 +133%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 20 $142 +$58 +41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $466 +$34 +7%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $97 −$95 -98%
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? May 19 $18 −$12 -68%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $641 +$59 +9%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $538 +$62 +11%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $27 +$73 +270%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $835 +$285 +34%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $24 +$176 +733%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $1,318 +$82 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,054 +$55 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $701 +$99 +14%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 25 $271 −$178 -66%
Will the next model released by DeepSeek debut at a score of at least Apr 24 $323 +$7 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the next model released by DeepSeek debut at a score of at least Apr 24 $1,136 +$59 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $144 −$144 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 17 $167 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 18m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $162 31m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $993 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $993 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $180 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $244 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $182 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3h
New pandemic in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $89 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $26 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 12h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 15h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $32 16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $84 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $37 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $12 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $12 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $130 35h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $27 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $54 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $60 2d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 2d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $126 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $287 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,816.48 · official $11,816.48 (match) · 3500 history records