Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7dff…7737 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$126 (-56%) realized −$127 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$95
14 days−$95
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$41
sports 37% −$57
world 14% −$32
crypto 5% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-65.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -58.7% -62.7% 25% 17% -65.7%
≤30d 12 -58.7% -62.7% 25% 17% -65.7%
≤90d 12 -58.7% -62.7% 25% 17% -65.7%
all 13 -61.9% -65.5% 23% 15% -71.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.5% 15% -71.6%
10% -68.8% 15% -74.3%
15% -71.8% 15% -76.8%
20% -74.6% 15% -79.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -97% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage136d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 74¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+57%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 20¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +114%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $23 −$18 -81%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $37 −$19 -50%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $23 −$22 -98%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 39m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 14h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $12 39h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 39h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $17 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $37 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 3d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.58 · official $18.58 (match) · 26 history records