Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7E 0x7e01…b0b5 sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,037 (-15%) realized −$3,037 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$480per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$235est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$227
7 days−$206
14 days−$668
30 days−$1,985
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$1,985
world 31% −$882
crypto 2% −$450
politics 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -21.5% -29.0% 50% 50% -16.9%
≤30d 30 -24.1% -31.3% 40% 37% -22.9%
≤90d 30 -24.1% -31.3% 40% 37% -22.9%
all 41 -31.2% -37.7% 37% 34% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 34% -25.2%
10% -43.7% 32% -32.3%
15% -49.1% 27% -38.9%
20% -54.1% 22% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$509) neutral
Persistence
early -46% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$278 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,037
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$235
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage366d
Avg bet$480
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $1,092 +$927 +85%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $612 −$601 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $101 +$65 +65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $321 −$318 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 +$22 +22%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,000 +$475 +48%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,289 −$1,276 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $769 +$516 +67%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,083 −$153 -14%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $365 +$82 +22%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $594 −$80 -14%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $509 −$69 -14%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $204 −$94 -46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $243 +$166 +68%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $153 +$188 +123%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $204 +$153 +75%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $375 −$371 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $239 −$236 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $458 −$206 -45%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qual May 30 $148 −$77 -52%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $204 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $399 +$247 +62%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $9 −$9 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $95 −$94 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $384 −$375 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $740 +$42 +6%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $101 +$78 +77%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $713 −$439 -62%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $255 −$49 -19%
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September? Feb 02 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Feb 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Feb 02 $1,778 −$32 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 06 $313 +$184 +59%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Aug 16 $282 −$239 -85%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 05 $450 −$450 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Jul 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Another US military action against Iran by June 30? Jul 05 $900 −$900 -100%
Iran strike on Qatar today? Jun 24 $300 +$133 +44%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $1,939 +$543 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $894 32m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 66¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 45¢ $135 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 25¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL PlayTime 76¢ $141 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 21¢ $60 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 33¢ $204 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL PlayTime 73¢ $849 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 50¢ $152 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 48¢ $203 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 51¢ $304 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 50¢ $27 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 28¢ $150 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 41¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 47¢ $102 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 46¢ $102 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 47¢ $102 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 49¢ $152 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 57¢ $101 4h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 65¢ $202 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $101 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 34¢ $18 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $101 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 69¢ $202 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $122 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 81¢ $101 4d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Team Yandex 99¢ $1,474 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 69¢ $494 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 64¢ $505 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Yandex 73¢ $278 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records