Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e03…cf15 politics 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$423per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$6
politics 33% −$8
world 13% −$2
sports 8% −$2
culture 5% −$1
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 35 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 35 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$799) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage88d
Avg bet$423
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? Jun 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of Jun 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,156 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $65 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,079 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $1,129 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,132 −$2 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $1,189 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $1,166 −$1 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 May 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $748 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $799 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $117 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Apr 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $65 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 29? Mar 29 $12 $0 +2%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 29 $129 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $48 48m
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $16 58m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of SELL No 100¢ $39 1h
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,154 20h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $65 20h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 20h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,095 21h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 21h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 21h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 21h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 21h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $805 22h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $321 22h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 22h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 22h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,130 43h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? SELL No 100¢ $45 43h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 44h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,083 44h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 44h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $191 44h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 45h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $36 45h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $869 46h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $275 46h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $13 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records