Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e03…bb77 weather 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-7%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day51.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$38
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.6% -31.8% 0% 0% -20.2%
≤30d 9 -24.6% -31.8% 0% 0% -20.2%
≤90d 9 -24.6% -31.8% 0% 0% -20.2%
all 9 -24.6% -31.8% 0% 0% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.8% 0% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -38.3% 0% -27.8%
15% -44.3% 0% -34.8%
20% -49.7% 0% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$5 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day51.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $163 −$12 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $82 −$9 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 −$4 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 18 $4 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 −$10 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? Jun 17 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 42¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 42¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 41¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 41¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 56¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 41¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 39¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 48¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 46¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 48¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 52¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 50¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 52¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 52¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 51¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 50¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 52¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 51¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 55¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 55¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 67¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records