Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e05…430b crypto 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate78%76W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days−$17
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$58
crypto 36% −$52
other 20% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -6.3% -15.2% 78% 32% -9.9%
≤30d 98 -6.2% -15.1% 78% 35% -10.3%
≤90d 98 -6.2% -15.1% 78% 35% -10.3%
all 98 -6.2% -15.1% 78% 35% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 35% -10.3%
10% -23.2% 12% -18.9%
15% -30.6% 4% -26.7%
20% -37.4% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$19 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses76 / 22
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)98 / 102
History coverage8d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $133 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $213 +$43 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $51 +$3 +6%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 16 $152 +$28 +18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$2 +4%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$11 +11%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 15 $202 +$8 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $202 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$4 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $91 +$21 +23%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $212 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $41 43m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $91 58m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $31 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $102 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $91 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 30h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 30h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 33h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $102 34h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $102 34h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 83¢ $10 34h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $10 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $51 40h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 83¢ $51 41h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 83¢ $51 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.36 · official $146.36 (match) · 210 history records