Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:06:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e07…a676 politics 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$894now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$2
sports 31% −$2
other 11% −$5
economics 10% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 15 -1.9% -11.3% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$894
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)15 / 21
History coverage234d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $169 $169 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $159 $159 −$0 (-0%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $159 $158 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 02 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jan 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 20 $397 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 16 $118 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 13 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 12 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 09 $500 −$1 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jan 09 $19 $0 +0%
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 07 $15 −$4 -30%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 25 $16 $0 +2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 4m
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 18m
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 5h
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $11 139d
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $11 139d
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $11 139d
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $11 139d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $18 146d
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $10 146d
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $10 146d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $18 146d
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? SELL No 99¢ $100 152d
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $397 152d
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $397 152d
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? BUY No 99¢ $100 152d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $497 153d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $297 153d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 153d
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $380 156d
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $118 156d
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $118 156d
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $380 156d
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $498 157d
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $498 157d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $498 158d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $499 158d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $499 159d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $893.63 · official $893.63 (match) · 48 history records