Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e09…af7c sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-4%) realized −$68 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$109
14 days−$117
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$118
sports 19% +$54
world 5% −$54
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -10.4% -19.0% 36% 36% -13.5%
≤30d 42 -14.8% -22.9% 36% 36% -13.9%
≤90d 42 -14.8% -22.9% 36% 36% -13.9%
all 42 -14.8% -22.9% 36% 36% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 36% -13.9%
10% -30.3% 33% -22.1%
15% -37.0% 21% -29.6%
20% -43.2% 17% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage9d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $35 $41 +$6 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$27 -88%
Panama vs. Croatia: Second half draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $104 +$20 +19%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $141 +$40 +28%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $146 −$34 -24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -6%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $101 −$41 -40%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $151 +$36 +24%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 $0 -4%
France to win the second half? Jun 22 $30 −$1 -2%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $110 +$25 +23%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -35%
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 22 $4 $0 -12%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 +$47 +185%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$40 -40%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $79 −$47 -59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $219 −$86 -40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 +$15 +41%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 +$7 +33%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Second half draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -86%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $5 $0 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$7 +56%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$7 +46%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 $0 -10%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$4 -27%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$11 +109%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $11 −$4 -32%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$2 +101%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$5 +55%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 32m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $35 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Second half draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $124 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $104 22h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $21 22h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 22h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $103 22h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $63 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 45¢ $63 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $56 23h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $56 23h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $58 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 57¢ $17 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 57¢ $32 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 24h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 24h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 24h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 43¢ $16 24h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 48¢ $36 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $39 24h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 25h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 97¢ $125 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $120 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.10 · official $41.10 (match) · 122 history records