Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e0b…e169 weather 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$109 (+27%) realized +$50 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-64.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -61.1% -64.8% 0% 0% -31.4%
≤30d 3 -61.1% -64.8% 0% 0% -31.4%
≤90d 3 -61.1% -64.8% 0% 0% -31.4%
all 3 -61.1% -64.8% 0% 0% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -64.8% 0% -31.4%
10% ← realistic here -68.1% 0% -38.0%
15% -71.2% 0% -44.0%
20% -74.0% 0% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$9 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)3 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? No 93¢ 98¢ $74 $78 +$5 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? No 73¢ 100¢ $31 $43 +$12 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? No 18¢ 100¢ $3 $19 +$16 (+458%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Yes 22¢ 98¢ $4 $17 +$13 (+345%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 41¢ 99¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+142%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19? No 100¢ 97¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? No 39¢ 100¢ $4 $12 +$7 (+156%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? No 98¢ 97¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 Jun 17 $12 −$9 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $87 −$8 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $9 12m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 100¢ $7 13m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 100¢ $7 13m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 26m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 25¢ $70 29m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $49 32m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 28¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 18¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY Yes 5¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 70¢ $60 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $32 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.74 · official $242.74 (match) · 49 history records