Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7E 0x7e0b…bae5 other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$88 (-1%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$8
politics 31% −$6
sports 7% −$74
world 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 74 -3.6% -12.8% 5% 4% -9.7%
all 96 -6.6% -15.5% 11% 10% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 10% -10.1%
10% -23.6% 6% -18.7%
15% -31.0% 2% -26.5%
20% -37.7% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×3.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 85
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage119d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $150 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $372 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 27 $121 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $125 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $158 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $135 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $156 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $272 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $311 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $123 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $158 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $142 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $531 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $131 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $319 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $176 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $266 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $171 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $141 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $159 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $174 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $139 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $133 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $126 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $140 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 08 $132 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $133 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $156 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $166 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 06 $177 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $443 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $148 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $153 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $167 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $164 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 04 $139 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $308 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $180 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 3d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 4d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 4d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 17d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 20d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 22d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $128 23d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $128 31d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $177 32d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $177 41d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $121 57d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $121 58d
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $125 58d
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $125 59d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 59d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $158 61d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $135 61d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $135 61d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $156 61d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $156 61d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $161 63d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $161 64d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $132 64d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $132 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.97 · official $44.97 (match) · 284 history records