Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
7E 0x7e0d…5d23 sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$6,402 (+23%) realized +$6,405 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate57%20W / 15L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$675per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$532
14 days+$532
30 days+$532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$6,434
culture 4% −$6
other 2% −$31
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +356.4% +313.0% 40% 40% +310.7%
≤30d 5 +356.4% +313.0% 40% 40% +310.7%
≤90d 5 +356.4% +313.0% 40% 40% +310.7%
all 35 +62.1% +46.6% 57% 40% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.6% 40% +11.6%
10% +32.6% 34% +1.0%
15% +19.8% 31% -8.8%
20% +8.0% 26% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +354% too few recent
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,100) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late +97% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$660 vs −$453 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized+$6,405
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses20 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage226d
Avg bet$675
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Under 74¢ 74¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $30 +$550 +1845%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) Dec 29 $960 +$1,355 +141%
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO5) Dec 27 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Dec 26 $1,899 +$221 +12%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) Dec 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3) Dec 26 $912 −$912 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming (BO3) Dec 26 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) Dec 26 $730 −$730 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) Dec 26 $1,054 −$1,054 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) Dec 26 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Dec 25 $182 +$168 +92%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) Dec 24 $1,000 +$852 +85%
LoL: LNG Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) Dec 21 $1,250 +$2,996 +240%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) Dec 19 $1,100 +$404 +37%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Dec 19 $1,500 +$1,527 +102%
LoL: Team WE vs Ultra Prime (BO3) Dec 18 $1,040 +$1,371 +132%
LoL: Oh My God vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) Dec 18 $3,000 +$947 +32%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO3) Dec 17 $751 +$1,145 +152%
LoL: FRK vs LNG Esports (BO3) Dec 16 $3,000 +$553 +18%
LoL: ZSM vs Oh My God (BO3) Dec 16 $2,495 +$1,002 +40%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 24 $191 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Nov 24 $200 −$4 -2%
Will Taylor Swift be the second most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 24 $200 −$3 -2%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 24 $200 −$2 -1%
Will Die With a Smile by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars be the most streamed Nov 24 $200 −$6 -3%
Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be bet Nov 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Will The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify thi Nov 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November? Nov 23 $200 $0 +0%
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? Nov 23 $195 +$5 +2%
Will “Frankenstein” be the top global Netflix movie this week? (Novemb Nov 23 $300 +$2 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $500 +$28 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $45 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $44 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $44 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 32¢ $42 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $45 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $44 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $45 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $44 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 24h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 46h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 46h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $30 2d
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) BUY LNG Esports 41¢ $300 170d
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) BUY LNG Esports 42¢ $200 170d
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) BUY LNG Esports 41¢ $200 170d
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) BUY LNG Esports 42¢ $60 170d
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) BUY LNG Esports 42¢ $200 170d
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO5) BUY EDward Gaming 18¢ $500 171d
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO5) BUY EDward Gaming 39¢ $1,000 171d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 19¢ $50 172d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 21¢ $150 172d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 27¢ $300 172d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 26¢ $100 172d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 25¢ $500 172d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) SELL Weibo Gaming 100¢ $170 173d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) SELL Weibo Gaming 45¢ $180 173d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) BUY Weibo Gaming 32¢ $182 173d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 20¢ $400 173d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 30¢ $500 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.70 · official $260.70 (match) · 152 history records