Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e13…0fe8 world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%29W / 50L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$21
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$22
other 23% −$28
sports 17% +$5
economics 7% $0
finance 5% +$3
politics 3% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.8% -13.9% 38% 12% -11.8%
≤30d 32 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 51 +26.8% +14.7% 43% 6% -9.5%
all 79 +17.3% +6.2% 37% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 5% -9.5%
10% -4.0% 1% -18.2%
15% -13.3% 1% -26.1%
20% -21.8% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses29 / 50
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage308d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 26 $100 −$19 -19%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $5 −$2 -33%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $130 −$2 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $278 +$1 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $257 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $133 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $117 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $29 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $223 −$3 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $95 +$10 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $348 +$10 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $170 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $86 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $27 +$1 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $83 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $146 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $243 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $121 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $179 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $284 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $78 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $84 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $187 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $94 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $270 +$2 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $241 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 21 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 18 $53 +$4 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $81 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $572 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $54 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $73 +$1 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $629 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,322 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $628 +$2 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $49 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $80 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $100 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 30h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $81 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $118 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $59 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $61 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $80 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $77 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.39 · official $0.00 · 357 history records