Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7E 0x7e14…59da other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$38
politics 21% −$7
sports 4% +$2
world 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 17% 17% -9.1%
≤30d 16 -0.0% -9.6% 12% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 110 -1.4% -10.8% 10% 7% -9.7%
all 112 -1.4% -10.7% 10% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 7% -9.7%
10% -19.3% 7% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 7% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)112 / 115
History coverage93d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $171 $171 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $61 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $6 +$6 +101%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $259 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $83 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $296 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $95 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $284 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $270 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $727 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $254 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $463 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $252 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $259 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $263 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $245 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $248 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $256 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $260 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $256 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 29 $251 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $260 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $237 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $262 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $256 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $240 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $253 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $250 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $512 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $61 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $6 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $4 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $171 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 12d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 13d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 15d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 17d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 17d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 19d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 19d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 20d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 20d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $35 22d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.98 · official $269.98 (match) · 337 history records