Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7E
0x7e16…7f14
crypto · 1251 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$801 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$815 · open +$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$225
Realized−$815
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses783 / 377
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions90
Markets (closed)1160 / 1251
History coverage47d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day55.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 90 History 1160 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days−$72
14 days−$123
30 days−$396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 100¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+566%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+163%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 63¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? No 76¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 84¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? No 55¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? No 63¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? No 62¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 77¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Yes 23¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+335%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 77¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? No 82¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? No 80¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? No 76¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? No 70¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 83¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? No 83¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 78¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 81¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 68¢ 80¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? No 74¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 75¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 53¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 73¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? No 62¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$3 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$4 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$4 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$21 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $28 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$2 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $29 +$3 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$622
weather 5% −$14
other 3% −$55
sports 2% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 9m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 9m
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 29m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 54m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $22 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 602 +5.8% -4.2% 80% 28% -10.3%
≤30d 933 +0.9% -8.7% 69% 32% -12.5%
≤90d 1160 -2.4% -11.7% 68% 36% -14.6%
all 1160 -2.4% -11.7% 68% 36% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover55.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 36% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 24% -22.8%
15% -27.8% 18% -30.2%
20% -34.9% 12% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.38 · official $223.25 (match) · 3500 history records