Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e19…7f12 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-7%) realized −$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$11
sports 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 38% -20.2%
≤30d 26 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 38% -20.2%
≤90d 26 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 38% -20.2%
all 26 -6.6% -15.5% 46% 38% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 38% -20.2%
10% -23.6% 35% -27.8%
15% -31.0% 35% -34.8%
20% -37.7% 27% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $9 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$7 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 78¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 78¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $5 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.03 (match) · 68 history records