Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7E 0x7e20…1524 other 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$511 (+12%) realized +$511 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%26W / 56L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,077
7 days−$859
14 days−$677
30 days−$677
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$585
sports 16% −$77
crypto 12% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -13.4% -21.6% 15% 15% -55.3%
≤30d 42 +1.5% -8.1% 21% 21% -43.9%
≤90d 44 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 20% -45.3%
all 82 +12.5% +1.8% 32% 32% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 32% +0.2%
10% -7.9% 32% -9.4%
15% -16.8% 32% -18.2%
20% -25.0% 30% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$40 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$511
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses26 / 56
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage224d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2025-11-29? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-29? Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-28? Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-30? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $31 −$29 -93%
Solana Up or Down - November 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC København win on 2025-11-26? Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Sevilla win on 2025-11-30? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sevilla vs. Real Betis end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-12-31? Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Celta Vigo vs. Espanyol end in a draw? Jun 20 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Mali win on 2026-01-03? Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Jun 20 $180 −$99 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 18? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $253 +$138 +54%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$50 +49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$108 +108%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$67 +272%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$15 +36%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$38 +255%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 +$99 +408%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 +$55 +99%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $37 +$29 +78%
Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-28? Mar 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 25, 7PM ET Mar 23 $29 −$10 -35%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 16 $99 +$235 +238%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $158 −$95 -60%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $148 +$160 +108%
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-31? Dec 31 $99 −$93 -94%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $50 −$46 -93%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $50 −$32 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $390 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $147 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $253 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 23¢ $51 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 7h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 14¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 15¢ $21 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $30 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 77¢ $208 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $100 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $25 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $50 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $25 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 41¢ $50 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $91 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $55 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $54 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 0¢ $0 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 10¢ $10 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 99¢ $123 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $24 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records