Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e23…7896 crypto 1028 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$575 (-5%) realized −$575 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate77%794W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$117
other 14% −$68
sports 5% −$79
weather 4% −$103
culture 3% +$7
economics 1% $0
world 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -11.8% -20.2% 86% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 29 -4.7% -13.8% 93% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 1025 -3.3% -12.5% 77% 43% -12.6%
all 1025 -3.3% -12.5% 77% 43% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 43% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 2% -21.0%
15% -28.5% 2% -28.6%
20% -35.6% 1% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$575
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses794 / 231
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1025 / 1028
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1025 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? No 98¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? No 98¢ 97¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs GamerLegion 98¢ 97¢ $40 $40 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will West Virginia win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 18 $40 +$1 +2%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 15 $42 +$2 +5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Spread: Chile (-2.5) Jun 09 $40 +$1 +2%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? Jun 08 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 07 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $41 +$1 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $40 +$1 +2%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 04 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Guam win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $41 +$1 +3%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex Jun 03 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Dean Huijsen be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Pablo Fornals be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 02 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $40 +$1 +2%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Esteban Lepaul be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 seas May 28 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 27 $40 +$1 +2%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $40 +$1 +2%
Will "PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Can May 23 $40 +$1 +2%
Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film F May 23 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Hamoud Abu Hassoun as Loid Forger (Childhood) (SPY x FAMILY Seaso May 23 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23? May 19 $40 $0 -1%
Alba Berlin vs. SC RASTA Vechta May 19 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Bangladesh win? May 19 $41 −$3 -7%
Bengaluru 3: Hamish Stewart vs Aditya Balsekar May 19 $41 −$9 -21%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Cristina Bucsa May 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Jonathan Young win Survivor Season 50? May 19 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $20 $0 +2%
Bengaluru 3: Aradhya Kshitij vs Alastair Gray May 19 $21 +$1 +3%
Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200? May 19 $39 $0 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 19 $21 +$1 +4%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 19 $20 $0 +2%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? May 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will Austria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will Germany be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $98 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 98¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? BUY No 98¢ $40 4h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY No 98¢ $40 5h
Will West Virginia win the 2026 College World Series? BUY No 98¢ $40 4d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 98¢ $40 5d
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 98¢ $40 5d
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $40 6d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 BUY No 95¢ $42 9d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $1 11d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $40 11d
Spread: Chile (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 98¢ $40 12d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $40 13d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented BUY No 97¢ $41 15d
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? BUY No 98¢ $40 16d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 BUY No 98¢ $40 16d
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 97¢ $41 16d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? BUY No 98¢ $40 16d
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 98¢ $40 18d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 98¢ $40 18d
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex BUY Hampshire 97¢ $41 18d
Will Guam win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 97¢ $12 19d
Will Guam win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 97¢ $29 19d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 98¢ $40 19d
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 98¢ $40 20d
Will Pablo Fornals be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squa BUY No 97¢ $41 24d
Will Dean Huijsen be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squad BUY No 98¢ $40 24d
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? BUY No 98¢ $40 25d
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 28d
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 97¢ $41 28d
Will Esteban Lepaul be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 seas BUY Yes 98¢ $40 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.72 · official $160.76 (match) · 3500 history records