Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e23…f008 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$172 (-60%) realized −$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$172
other 9% $0
world 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-66.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -62.8% -66.4% 14% 0% -69.9%
≤30d 7 -62.8% -66.4% 14% 0% -69.9%
≤90d 7 -62.8% -66.4% 14% 0% -69.9%
all 7 -62.8% -66.4% 14% 0% -69.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.4% 0% -69.9%
10% -69.6% 0% -72.8%
15% -72.5% 0% -75.4%
20% -75.2% 0% -77.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$29 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Uzbekistan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $24 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.43 · official $26.43 (match) · 25 history records