Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:18:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e2a…12c2 crypto 1283 markets active 6h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$310 (-1%) realized −$310 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%1187W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$183
7 days−$253
14 days−$253
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$548
other 14% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -6.5% -15.4% 26% 16% -16.1%
≤30d 58 -6.5% -15.4% 26% 16% -16.1%
≤90d 1283 -1.9% -11.3% 93% 2% -11.2%
all 1283 -1.9% -11.3% 93% 2% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 2% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 1% -19.7%
15% -27.5% 1% -27.5%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$310
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1187 / 96
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1283 / 1283
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1283 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $114 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $126 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $93 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $127 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$15 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$13 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $56 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $69 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $128 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$46 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$12 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $73 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$15 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $97 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $145 −$45 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $154 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $123 −$23 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $148 −$23 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $149 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $186 −$28 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $179 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $207 −$28 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $44 −$21 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records