Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e2a…d25c sports 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$214 (-2%) realized +$21 · open −$235
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$316
7 days+$207
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$727
sports 32% +$1,675
crypto 9% −$983
world 2% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -10.7% -19.2% 26% 26% -7.6%
≤30d 44 -12.6% -20.9% 25% 25% -9.4%
≤90d 44 -12.6% -20.9% 25% 25% -9.4%
all 44 -12.6% -20.9% 25% 25% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 25% -9.4%
10% -28.5% 25% -18.1%
15% -35.4% 23% -26.0%
20% -41.7% 20% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$536 vs −$179 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$235
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage8d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $200 $117 −$83 (-42%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 17¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,204 +$272 +23%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 +$251 +83%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$11 -10%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $153 +$402 +262%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $102 −$65 -63%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$99 -96%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $102 +$445 +435%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $103 +$563 +549%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $425 +$231 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $293 +$140 +48%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $184 +$362 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$6 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $34 +$26 +78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $154 −$150 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $134 −$132 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $590 −$579 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $998 −$983 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $391 −$380 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,011 +$550 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $408 +$2,648 +649%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $112 −$8 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 23m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 23m
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 23m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $833 28m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $546 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $123 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $642 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $658 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $102 20h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $62 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H BUY Yes 18¢ $102 25h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $92 26h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 26h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $102 28h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 41h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 41h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $103 43h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $555 43h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $153 44h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 44h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 7¢ $38 45h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $102 46h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 47h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 47h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $548 47h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.31 · official $185.31 (match) · 71 history records