Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e2b…cfc0 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$33 (+3%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$76
14 days+$114
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 51% +$56
crypto 34% +$67
finance 15% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +23.7% +11.9% 58% 50% -1.8%
≤30d 14 +16.2% +5.1% 57% 50% +0.9%
≤90d 15 +8.4% -1.9% 53% 47% -3.7%
all 15 +8.4% -1.9% 53% 47% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 47% -3.7%
10% -11.3% 47% -12.9%
15% -19.9% 47% -21.3%
20% -27.7% 27% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$25 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage33d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 28 $251 −$45 -18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 28 $119 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $51 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 28 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$82 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$14 +55%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 22 above $345? Jun 26 $50 +$18 +37%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December? Jun 26 $110 −$9 -8%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 end of June? Jun 25 $66 +$53 +80%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 23 $59 −$14 -24%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 20 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 26 $49 −$47 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 55¢ $123 49m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 67¢ $123 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 54¢ $44 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up $27 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 62¢ $119 44h
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 22 above $345? SELL No 89¢ $68 44h
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 22 above $345? BUY No 65¢ $50 46h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December? SELL No 66¢ $101 46h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 61¢ $119 3d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 end of June? SELL No 92¢ $119 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December? BUY No 73¢ $70 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 48¢ $25 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 35¢ $45 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 44¢ $59 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 37¢ $59 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December? BUY No 66¢ $40 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 50¢ $10 7d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 end of June? BUY No 59¢ $10 7d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 end of June? BUY No 50¢ $56 8d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 51¢ $102 8d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $145 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records