Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:50:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7E 0x7e2d…9160 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-15%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$19
sports 49% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+52.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +68.9% +52.8% 60% 60% +24.7%
≤30d 5 +68.9% +52.8% 60% 60% +24.7%
≤90d 5 +68.9% +52.8% 60% 60% +24.7%
all 5 +68.9% +52.8% 60% 60% +24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.8% 60% +24.7%
10% +38.2% 60% +12.8%
15% +24.9% 60% +1.9%
20% +12.6% 60% -8.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 +$26 +98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$17 -81%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will Norway Jun 17 $8 +$18 +226%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 −$3 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $53 56m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will Norway BUY 30¢ $8 22h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 22h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records