Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:17:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7E
0x7e2f…febc
sports · 1178 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13,693 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15,524 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$248
Realized−$15,524
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses515 / 659
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$532
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1174 / 1178
History coverage158d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 4 History 1174 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$483
7 days−$782
14 days+$197
30 days+$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 31¢ 31¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 56¢ 56¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 59¢ 57¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner FURIA Esports 22¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Team Heretics 47¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Astralis 51¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A MOUZ 73¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Valorant: MIBR vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2 KRÜ Esports 46¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs KRÜ Esports 15¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Heroic 56¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2 FURIA Esports 39¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner G2 Esports 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Fisher College 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner YFP Gaming 56¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Eternal Fire 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 2 FULL SENSE 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega FURIA Esports 46¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 53¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$24 -80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 −$24 -20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $25 +$9 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $102 −$21 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $93 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$19 -61%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 −$44 -44%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$57 +57%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$38 +370%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $104 −$15 -15%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 −$8 -8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $16 −$12 -75%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $66 +$291 +443%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$8 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $104 −$30 -29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $66 −$15 -23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$20 +66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$20 +66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$74 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $101 +$85 +84%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,109 +$270 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $418 −$344 -82%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$25 +121%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $681 −$267 -39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -95%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $102 +$35 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$25 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $203 +$60 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$5 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $32 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $201 +$34 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $240 −$186 -78%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $450 −$127 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 63% −$13,261
sports 36% −$2,274
crypto 0% +$125
culture 0% +$26
world 0% −$120
finance 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $101 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $88 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $103 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 24¢ $34 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 17¢ $25 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $81 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $93 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 16¢ $12 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 39¢ $31 10h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 35¢ $57 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 60¢ $101 10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 100¢ $159 11h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 87¢ $48 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $89 12h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 63¢ $101 13h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 61¢ $93 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 18¢ $31 14h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $10 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 14h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 14¢ $4 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 47¢ $30 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $346 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -9.9% -18.5% 38% 37% -14.5%
≤30d 245 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 40% -5.1%
≤90d 934 -14.1% -22.3% 40% 36% -31.7%
all 1174 -5.8% -14.8% 44% 40% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 40% -15.2%
10% -23.0% 36% -23.3%
15% -30.4% 32% -30.7%
20% -37.2% 25% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.27 · official $248.29 (match) · 3397 history records