Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e31…d45b crypto 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+1%) realized −$2 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate59%65W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$41
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$26
other 14% −$40
sports 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -4.9% -14.0% 59% 44% -11.1%
≤30d 108 -4.9% -14.0% 59% 44% -11.1%
≤90d 108 -4.9% -14.0% 59% 44% -11.1%
all 111 -6.6% -15.5% 59% 43% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 43% -11.5%
10% -23.5% 33% -20.0%
15% -30.9% 29% -27.7%
20% -37.7% 23% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses65 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)111 / 116
History coverage118d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $201 $200 −$1 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 99¢ $46 $80 +$33 (+71%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 54¢ 57¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 54¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $45 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $147 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $86 +$22 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $55 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $125 +$4 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $39 +$23 +58%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $75 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $58 −$24 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$16 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $127 −$25 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $77 +$39 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $78 +$35 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $76 −$25 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $61 +$11 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$9 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$29 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $137 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $16 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.98 · official $347.27 · 310 history records