Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e35…79fb other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,559 (-31%) realized −$2,297 · open −$8,262
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,130per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$15,253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$383
7 days−$4,390
14 days−$4,390
30 days−$4,390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$8,011
world 14% −$2,589
sports 6% −$2,052
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-67.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -63.7% -67.2% 20% 0% -47.9%
≤30d 5 -63.7% -67.2% 20% 0% -47.9%
≤90d 5 -63.7% -67.2% 20% 0% -47.9%
all 5 -63.7% -67.2% 20% 0% -47.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -67.2% 0% -47.9%
10% ← realistic here -70.3% 0% -52.9%
15% -73.2% 0% -57.5%
20% -75.8% 0% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
15.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$1,164 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$15,253
Realized−$2,297
Unrealized−$8,262
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage14d
Avg bet$3,130
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5,524 $5,473 −$51 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5,583 $2,713 −$2,871 (-51%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $4,971 $2,382 −$2,589 (-52%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3,267 $1,950 −$1,317 (-40%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,113 $1,557 −$1,557 (-50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,056 $1,179 +$123 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $3,756 +$267 +7%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $669 −$650 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $1,440 −$1,402 -97%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,589 −$665 -26%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,941 −$1,941 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $128 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2,221 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $555 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1,667 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $974 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $243 29h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 29h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $617 29h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $609 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,920 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $530 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,440 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $1,925 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $88 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $349 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2,071 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $587 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $798 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $375 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $180 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $368 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,253.01 · official $15,253.01 (match) · 195 history records