Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7E 0x7e35…1a6c politics 258 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$71,315 (+92%) realized +$58,983 · open +$12,332
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%57W / 64L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day81.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$81,104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$17,358
politics 35% +$12,235
world 8% +$904
culture 3% +$22
finance 1% +$110
economics 0% +$123
sports 0% +$30
tech 0% +$5
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+68.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -0.8% -10.2% 47% 45% +68.3%
≤30d 120 +87.8% +69.9% 48% 41% +46.8%
≤90d 121 +86.3% +68.5% 47% 40% +45.9%
all 121 +86.3% +68.5% 47% 40% +45.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +68.5% 40% +45.9%
10% ← realistic here +52.4% 36% +31.9%
15% +37.7% 28% +19.2%
20% +24.2% 26% +7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +86% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +79% → late +93% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$406 vs −$92 · ×4.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.95 per $1 lost it wins $3.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$81,104
Realized+$58,983
Unrealized+$12,332
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses57 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions216
Markets (closed)121 / 258
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$301
Trades / day81.7
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 216 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 68¢ 92¢ $10,264 $13,787 +$3,523 (+34%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 40¢ 98¢ $5,014 $12,139 +$7,125 (+142%)
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 80¢ 94¢ $2,176 $2,584 +$408 (+19%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 80¢ 97¢ $1,350 $1,632 +$282 (+21%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 56¢ $990 $1,367 +$377 (+38%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $736 $1,350 +$614 (+83%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 55¢ 65¢ $1,118 $1,310 +$192 (+17%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $1,246 $1,290 +$44 (+4%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No 46¢ 40¢ $1,441 $1,270 −$171 (-12%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 74¢ 97¢ $867 $1,141 +$275 (+32%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 21¢ 26¢ $850 $1,095 +$245 (+29%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 58¢ 74¢ $829 $1,061 +$232 (+28%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 39¢ 78¢ $506 $1,018 +$512 (+101%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 44¢ $906 $985 +$79 (+9%)
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 43¢ $863 $957 +$94 (+11%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $1,039 $956 −$83 (-8%)
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $873 $889 +$16 (+2%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 48¢ $778 $800 +$22 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 74¢ 62¢ $894 $746 −$149 (-17%)
Will Yvette Cooper be in the Burnham cabinet? Yes 86¢ 94¢ $658 $718 +$59 (+9%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? No 41¢ 84¢ $349 $717 +$368 (+106%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $628 $714 +$86 (+14%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 39¢ 53¢ $523 $700 +$177 (+34%)
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $525 $698 +$174 (+33%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $501 $688 +$187 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? Jun 26 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Maria Deery win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 26 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Simon Finkelstein win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 26 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Nithya Raman & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2 Jun 26 $124 −$124 -100%
Will James Thomas Bryer win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 26 $224 −$224 -100%
Will another pair of candidates advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 26 $124 −$124 -100%
Will John Skipworth win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 26 $224 −$224 -100%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 26 $371 +$358 +96%
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 25 $507 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect Jun 25 $62 +$20 +33%
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 24 $92 +$95 +103%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 24 $699 −$684 -98%
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prim Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $236 +$63 +27%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $22 +$8 +39%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $253 +$96 +38%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $198 +$408 +206%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Kweisi Mfume be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Mark Conway be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 23 $6 +$9 +155%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Jun 23 $72 +$19 +26%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Jun 22 $4 +$1 +26%
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Jun 22 $178 +$377 +212%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $823 −$823 -100%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $261 +$179 +69%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $616 +$936 +152%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $2,464 +$9,580 +389%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $498 −$183 -37%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $1,054 +$868 +82%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $1,254 +$86 +7%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $2,337 +$1,847 +79%
Will Angus King III win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Paige Loud be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 19 $70 +$269 +386%
Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 19 $8 +$77 +974%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $67 +$253 +377%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $166 +$28 +17%
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $350 +$81 +23%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $235 +$199 +85%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 19 $91 −$25 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera SELL Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8m
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17m
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23m
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38m
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 3h
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 3h
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 3h
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 3h
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY No 22¢ $3 4h
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 5h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6h
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 7h
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 13¢ $13 13h
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 14h
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY No 23¢ $19 14h
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 14h
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81,103.59 · official $81,098.02 (match) · 3500 history records