Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7E 0x7e36…29fb crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist
Total PnL +$361 (+7%) realized +$361 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%23W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$914
30 days−$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$87
finance 13% +$20
other 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.1% +0.5% 50% 50% -10.6%
≤30d 29 +30.3% +17.9% 34% 34% -26.6%
≤90d 56 +47.1% +33.1% 41% 39% -8.2%
all 56 +47.1% +33.1% 41% 39% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.1% 39% -8.2%
10% +20.4% 39% -17.0%
15% +8.8% 38% -25.0%
20% -1.9% 36% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$78 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$361
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses23 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage70d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 17 $21 +$16 +77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $26 +$25 +94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$45 +172%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$12 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $27 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 10 $157 −$157 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $315 −$315 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 7? Jun 08 $281 −$281 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $125 −$6 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $50 +$186 +373%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $57 +$678 +1180%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 31 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 27 $21 +$37 +174%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? May 27 $37 +$31 +84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $21 +$53 +248%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 25 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 21 $155 −$155 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $53 −$53 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 18? May 18 $34 −$12 -36%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $103 +$73 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 18 $75 +$90 +120%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $80 +$390 +488%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14? May 14 $227 −$227 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $105 +$149 +142%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Romania No-Confidence vote passes? May 05 $36 −$36 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4? May 05 $496 −$42 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 04 $100 +$174 +175%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1? May 01 $120 +$30 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $232 +$143 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 24? Apr 22 $298 +$212 +71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $50 +$63 +128%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Apr 19 $20 +$27 +135%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $20 +$75 +379%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $99 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? SELL No 74¢ $37 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 79¢ $51 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $72 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? SELL No 84¢ $39 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 54¢ $26 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 19¢ $26 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 39¢ $21 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 38¢ $26 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 33¢ $26 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 17¢ $27 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? BUY No 13¢ $55 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 21¢ $20 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? BUY No 30¢ $27 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 7? BUY Yes 15¢ $281 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 37¢ $315 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 35¢ $105 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 27¢ $53 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 46¢ $52 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 43¢ $52 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 39¢ $52 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 37¢ $52 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 22¢ $53 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? SELL No 72¢ $118 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY No 41¢ $72 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? SELL No 77¢ $235 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? SELL No 100¢ $736 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 15¢ $50 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY No 7¢ $57 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? BUY No 15¢ $39 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 21¢ $53 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records