Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e36…0d8b other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate16%3W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$4
crypto 9% +$1
sports 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -57.3% -61.3% 18% 9% -8.9%
≤30d 19 -33.2% -39.5% 16% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 19 -33.2% -39.5% 16% 5% -9.4%
all 19 -33.2% -39.5% 16% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 5% -9.4%
10% -45.3% 5% -18.1%
15% -50.6% 5% -26.0%
20% -55.5% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses3 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage15d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $26 +$19 +70%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $320 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $460 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $273 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $520 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $310 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $370 +$1 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $363 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $241 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $26 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down $0 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down $0 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $11 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down $0 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up $0 29h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $320 31h
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down $0 31h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $320 2d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $460 2d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $460 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $273 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $273 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $310 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $310 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $370 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $435 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $435 10d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $361 10d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $363 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $484 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $485 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $484 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $485 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $241 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $241 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records